金力永磁稀土行情简报1646期（总第162期）11-28~12-02

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 11-28~12-02

2016年第49周

Week 49, 2016

1.重要新闻简报Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市场金属镨钕和镝铁价格均有小幅上涨，铽价格相对稳定。亚洲金属网价格:镨钕金属322-327元/KG，镝铁合金价格1245-1265元/KG，铽金属价格3900-3950元/KG。

This week the price of PrNd and DyFe in the rare earth market had a slight increase while Tb was relatively stable. The price at weekend from Asia metal presented as: PrNd 322-327 RMB/KG, DyFe 1245-1265 RMB/KG and Tb metal 3900-3950 RMB/KG.

2.业内人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

在经过今年前三季度的低迷以后，11月下旬开始，稀土市场逐渐表现出走强的意愿，部分产品价格有所回升。此次价格出现反弹是继5月底进行商储后的一次。虽然中间多次因为召开收储会议而出现上涨的苗头，但都由于收储会议的无果而终没能实现反弹，此次价格反弹也是多种因素综合作用下的结果。

After the downturn in the first three quarters of this year, the rare earth market gradually begins to show a willingness to be strong in late November with price rose of some products. It is the first time that price rebound after the commercial reserve at the end of May. Although there's rising signs repeatedly because of reserve meeting, it ultimately failed to achieve a rebound as no conclusion has made in the storage meeting and the rebound is the result under comprehensive effects.

分离厂停产的可能性加大。11月15日，五矿稀土确定了集中生产的经营方案，有针对性的安排所属企业复产与生产调整。根据往年的经验来看，临近年底，在各个企业的冶炼分离指标都基本用完的情况下，其他大企业也很有可能会紧随五矿稀土的脚步，宣布各自旗下分离企业全部或部分停产的计划，如此一来，市场上稀土产品供应将会减少。

First is the bigger possibility of separation plant discontinued. On November 15th, Minmetals rare earth ultimately determined the concentration production management plan, targeted arrange the owned enterprises to resume production and adjustment of production. Based on past experience, near the end of the year, the index of smelting separation for each enterprise basically run out of the situation, the other big companies are also likely to follow the footsteps of Minmetals rare earth, announced the discontinued production plan of all or part of their separation enterprise, so that the supply of rare earth products in the market will be reduced. 

其次，人民币兑美元的汇率持续下跌，有利于稀土产品出口。据中国海关数据显示，2016年1~10月，中国稀土的出口总量为38435吨，同比增长43.7%，今年前10个月，稀土出口量同比增长除了正常的需求以及取消出口配额和关税以外，汇率的持续下跌也起到了一定的促进作用。

Second, the RMB against the USD continued to fall, which is conducive to the export of rare earth products. The customs data shows that from January to October 2016, China total exports of rare earth was 38,435 tons with an increase of 43.7%. The first 10 months of this year, exports growth is not only because of the normal demand and the abolition of export quotas & the tariff, the continued decline in the exchange rate also played a certain role in promoting.

稀土收储预期加强。近期几家稀土大企业动作频频，从市场各方面反馈的消息来看，近期关于稀土收储的会议或许会重启，此次会议各方就价格问题达成一致的可能性比较大，稀土收储的预期在增加，但无论结果如何，在收储信息的带动下，市场肯定会出现波动。大部分企业在经历了全年的亏损后，稀土收储将成为企业扭亏为盈的重要举措，因此，主要稀土企业都乐于推动收储工作尽快启动，特别是一些业绩仍然亏损的上市公司更为积极主动。随着稀土收储的预期不断增强，业内商家也减少出货，稀土产品供应相对比较紧张。

Finally, rare earth reserve is expected to be strengthened. Recently several large rare earth enterprise act frequently, feedback from various aspects of the market news, a purchasing and storage of rare earth meeting may restart recently, the possibility of the parties to reach an agreement on a price is relatively large, the purchasing and storage expectation is increasing, but no matter what the result is, the market will certainly fluctuate driven by the information of storage. Most of the enterprises had gone through the loss of this year and the purchasing and storage of rare earth will become the important measure for the enterprises to turn losses into gains, therefore, major rare earth enterprises are willing to promote the starting of purchasing and storage work as soon as possible, especially the performance of some listed companies with deficit. With rare earth purchasing and storage expectation increased, some merchants also reduce shipments and rare earth products supply is relatively tight now.

在停产、收储、美联储加息、人民币汇率下跌、商家囤货等多种因素的刺激下，稀土价格在11月中下旬出现了一次小幅上涨，镨钕、镝、铽等部分产品的价格开始反弹，询价有所增加，但还是比较有限。未来一段时间内，稀土产品价格将回升至什么程度以及能够保持多长时间，业内还是持悲观态度者较多，因此，此次价格反弹的幅度和持续的时间仍然不容。

By the stimulation of a variety of factors such as discontinued production, purchasing and storage, US Federal Reserve hike, RMB exchange rate fell, businesses stockpile, etc., there has been a slight increase for rare earth prices at the end of November, PrNd, Dy, Tb and other parts of the product prices began to rebound as well as the enquiries, but the turnover is still relatively limited. The next coming period, what extents will the price of rare earth products rise and how long can remain is still a question. The insiders are still more pessimistic, so the price rebound magnitude and the duration of time is still not optimistic.

3.趋势图（参考亚洲金属网）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2016年12月02日

Dec. 2nd,2016

提示：以上信息仅供参考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!