金力永磁稀土行情简报1712期（总第178期）04-10~04-14

JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 04-10~04-14

2017年第15周

Week 15, 2017

1.重要新闻简报Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市场价格镨钕和铽均有小幅上涨，镝铁价格相对稳定。亚洲金属网价格: 镨钕金属362-365元/KG，镝铁合金价格1230-1250元/KG，铽金属价格4250-4300元/KG。

This week the market price of PrNd and Tb had increased slightly and the price of DyFe was relatively stable. Prices from Asian Metal of this weekend presented: PrNd 362-365RMB/KG, DyFe 1230-1250RMB/KG, Tb metal 4250-4300RMB/KG.

4月13日从工信部获悉，工信部下达2017年一批稀土生产总量控制计划，其中矿产品计划在52500吨，冶炼分离产品计划在50075吨。（2016年一批稀土生产总控制计划为，全国矿产品生产总量控制在52500吨,冶炼分离产品生产总量控制在45000吨）

On April 13th, the MIIT has launched the first batch of 2017 total rare earth production control schedule, which includes 52500 tons minerals products and 50075 tons melting separation products. (The first batch of 2016 total rare earth production control schedule is 52500 tons minerals products and 45000 tons melting separation products.)

2.业内人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

近几个月来，国内稀土价格一路向好，其周期性行情经历了一波涨势。以3月份为例，轻重稀土价格继续上涨，氧化铽报价315万元/吨至320万元/吨，每吨涨10万元，金属铽报价415万元/吨至420万元/吨，每吨涨10万元。轻稀土方面，镨钕产品集体涨价，氧化镨钕报价28万元/吨至28.5万元/吨，每吨涨0.2万元，金属镨钕报价36万元/吨至36.5万元/吨，每吨涨0.2万元，其涨幅近10%。

In the recent few months, the domestic rare earth price is quite good, which has experienced a periodic increasing. Use the price in March as an example, the price of Tb oxide was 3,150,000RMB/T-3,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T; the price of Tb metal was 4,150,000RMB/T-4,200,000RMB/T, which increased 100,000 RMB/T. And in the light rare earth aspect, all the prices of PrNd products had increased, the price of PrNd oxide was 280,000RMB/T-285,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T; the price of PrNd metal was 360,000RMB/T-365,000RMB/T, which increased 2,000 RMB/T and the increasing rate is almost 10%.

综合来看，稀土行情的变化主要基于三个方面，一是自1月份以来，各地稀土“打黑"行动陆续推进，再加上环保督查从严，将有效整顿行业；二是清明节前稀土收储中标成功，数量和价格均高于市场预期；三是节后下游需求恢复，厂家生产采购量增加，助推价格上涨。

Overall, the price changing of the rare earth market are mainly based on three aspects, first, starting from January, the special operation on illegal rare earth as well as strictly environmental protection supervision; second, rare earth purchasing and storage has won the bidding before Qingming festival and the quantity/price are higher than market expectation; third, the downstream demand has recovered and purchasing increased, which help to boost the price.

客观地说，近年来，稀土价格不断受挫，价格的持续下跌，主要在于当前稀土行业产能过剩严重以及部分不法分子对稀土资源的非法开采甚至走私等一系列问题。虽然国家针对稀土业一系列政策的出台，起到了推动稀土行情的发展，但稀土周期力量并未完全释放。目前，稀土业后续的政策组合拳还会出现，其周期性行情变化将引人关注。

Objectively speaking, the rare earth prices constantly suffer a setback and continuously decrease in the past few years. The main reasons were excess production capacity, illegal mining and smuggling. Even our government has issued a series of policy on rare earth which promote the development of rare earth market, the cycle power has not fully released.

针对稀土行情周期的判断，分析人士指出，要分为大周期和小周期观察，大周期就是国内稀土业转型升级的阵痛期，转型升级完成以后，稀土业将有机会进入大周期的增长。在这个进程中，从去年11月到现在，稀土业正经历一轮小周期，相当于大周期放缓中的一波“小阳春"行情。

The insider point out that the rare earth market can be divided into major cycle and minor cycle. The major cycle is the transformation and upgrading period of domestic rare earth industry, once it is finished, the rare earth industry will enter into a major cycle increasing. From November last year till now, the rare earth is going through a minor cycle, which is a slowdown “minor spring" in major cycle.

至于稀土这一波“小阳春"行情能够持续多久，有观点认为，有望持续到今年年中以后，这也和国内工业企业指数上行趋势相匹配。究其原因，主要是工业库存由负转正，但仍比历史平均水平低，所以企业补库存还会持续一段时间。因此如果价格能够持续增长，稀土产能随时都可以恢复，其行情仍有上涨空间。

The analysts do not know how long the “minor spring" will last and it is thought that it will last till the middle of this year which is matched with the domestic industrial enterprise upward trend. Mainly reason is the industrial inventory turn from negative to positive, but they are still lower than the historical average, so enterprise inventory filling up will continue for a period of time. Therefore if prices could continue to grow, rare earth production capacity can be restored at any time and the prices will still have a rising space.

3.趋势图（参考亚洲金属网）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2017年04月14日

April 14th, 2017

提示：以上信息仅供参考！

Notes: the information above is for reference only!